Roulette Buddy: what the Risk percentage and Progress mean
Read Roulette Buddy's trigger percentage correctly, distinguish it from the current streak, and check a three-hit example without treating an alert as a prediction.
A Roulette Buddy card can show Progress: 2/3 alongside Risk: High (11.51%). Those fields answer different questions. Progress reports the recorded streak against your chosen threshold. The percentage is a calculation from the selected numbers, hit-or-miss condition, threshold and wheel setting. It does not use the current streak to predict the next result.
Knowing that difference prevents a common misreading: neither a nearly full progress bar nor an activated trigger means the selected numbers are due to win.
Read the setup before the percentage
Open Roulette Buddy and inspect the trigger’s selected numbers, condition and threshold. The editor displays Coverage, Per spin and Risk Level. The card summarizes the percentage next to Risk and shows Current streak separately.
- Coverage is the share of wheel pockets in the selected group.
- Per spin is the chance of the selected condition on one spin. For a hit condition, that means landing in the group. For a miss condition, it means landing outside it.
- Risk Level applies a descriptive label to the calculated chance of the threshold number of consecutive hits or misses.
- Progress compares the current recorded streak with that threshold.
The calculation assumes equally likely pockets and independent spins. The tool uses 37 pockets for the single-zero setting and 38 for American Roulette. Confirm the wheel setting and selected group before comparing percentages. The displayed calculation does not model a triple-zero wheel.
Work through a three-hit example
Consider a hypothetical practice trigger covering the 18 red numbers on a standard single-zero wheel, with a hit condition and threshold of three. No wager is needed to work through it.
The chance of red on one spin is 18/37, or about 48.65%. For a particular block of three independent spins, all three must land red to satisfy the condition throughout the block:
(18/37) × (18/37) × (18/37) = 11.51%.
That is the percentage shown by the trigger calculation. It is the chance of three hits in a specified three-spin block before observing that block. It is not the chance of seeing at least one such run somewhere in a long session, and it is not the chance of earning a profit.
Now suppose you have already recorded two consecutive red results and the card shows 2/3. The next independent spin is still red with probability 18/37, about 48.65%. Only one additional red is needed to complete the current run. The card’s 11.51% remains a description of the full three-spin condition, rather than a probability updated from your two recorded hits.
After another red, the current streak reaches three and the card can show ACTIVATED. This is a threshold status. It provides no mathematical reason to increase a wager or expect a particular fourth result. MGM’s roulette guide explains that previous spins do not make a future outcome more or less likely.
Why a miss trigger has a different number
Keep the same 18-number selection and threshold, but choose the miss condition. There are 19 pockets outside the group, including zero. The chance of three specified consecutive misses becomes:
(19/37)³ = 13.54%.
Coverage stays at 18/37 because the selected group has not changed. The per-spin condition probability becomes 19/37, about 51.35%, because you are now asking about a miss.
The current tool labels the three-hit example High and the three-miss example Medium, even though the miss percentage is larger. That happens because the descriptive labels use different cutoffs for hit and miss conditions. Compare the numeric probabilities and the condition being measured, rather than treating the label as a universal scale.
In particular, Risk is not a calculation of how much money you could lose. It does not include a wager amount, payout schedule, session budget or stop point. A low displayed percentage is not a declaration that a betting plan is safe.
Check what “1 in” refers to
For the three-hit example, the reciprocal of 11.5136% is approximately 8.69. The editor rounds that to about 1 in 9 attempts. Read this as another expression of the probability for a specified three-spin block. It is not a promise that the pattern arrives every ninth spin or a countdown until it must appear.
Successive overlapping three-spin windows share results, so they are not separate independent trials. Waiting time to a run and the chance of a run anywhere in a longer session require different calculations from the percentage displayed here.
For a broader distinction between hit frequency and money returned, see roulette odds, house edge and expected loss. To preserve a trigger setup before experimenting, follow the trigger backup guide. Tink’s Toolchest also provides roulette tools and session history in the separate app; the screen labels described here belong to browser-based Roulette Buddy.
Use the fields to understand the record and the assumptions behind a calculation. They do not remove the house edge or turn past results into a profitable forecast.